"I DON'T KNOW WHY I GO TO EXTREMES." Billy Joel. Last week, Bonds went to the extremes of their trading range, battling tough layers of technical resistance as they attempted to improve. Let's take a closer look, and understand the news of the week.


There was good news on the inflation front as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), indicated that inflation remained tame last month. Generally tame inflation is a good sign for Bonds - but there is still concern, as inflation is certainly coming...it's just a matter of when.

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Chart: Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index



As part of that same report, Personal Income and Spending were both reported inline with expectations. Interestingly enough, consumer spending has now risen three months in a row. However, this needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as this boost comes on the heels of the Government's "Cash for Clunkers" program, which likely boosted spending statistics. Until the labor market stabilizes, we won't likely see a meaningful pickup in consumer spending. Speaking of the consumer, the Consumer Sentiment Index was also reported in line with expectations.

There was also more good news on the housing front last week. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices rose for the second straight month while New Home Sales surged 9.6% in July from June's reading, signaling that the housing market is stabilizing. Adding to the positive tone of the report was a drop in inventories, which now stands at a 7.5-month supply from last month's 8.8 month reading.

Keep in mind that some of the current buyers are adding a bit of what may be an artificial boost to the housing numbers, as they normally would have purchased in 2010 but have moved up their buying decisions to take advantage of tax credits and historically low rates. Let me know if you would like more information on these time-sensitive tax credits.

It's also important to note that the revised second Quarter Gross Domestic Product Report showed that the economy has now contracted for four consecutive quarters for the first time since the Great Depression. This is another area to watch in the coming months as we gauge the pace of recovery.

Remember, positive economic news typically causes money to flow from Bonds to Stocks, causing Bonds and home loan rates to worsen. However, even with the pressure of more supply from last week's Treasury auctions, Bonds and home loan rates were able to hold on to some improvements and end the week very slightly better than where they began.

SITTING IN A PLANE ON THE TARMAC FOR HOURS IS AN EXTREME SITUATION NONE OF US WANTS TO EXPERIENCE! CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR SOME GREAT INFORMATION ON PASSENGER RIGHTS.

Forecast for the Week





Friday will be a big day this week, and not just because people will be getting ready to celebrate the Labor Day Holiday. The Labor Department's Jobs Report for August will be released at 8:30am ET. July's report showed glimmers of hope for an improving job market: 247,000 jobs lost in July versus economists' expectations of 328,000 jobs lost, the smallest loss since August 2008. Even better, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.4%, from the prior month's reading of 9.5%, which broke a streak of 9 straight monthly increases. It will be important to see if these trends continue.

Speaking of the job market, it will also be important to keep an eye on Thursday's weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. The recent trend of higher than expected Claims is disappointing after what appeared to be a steady decline in Claims earlier this summer. We'll want to take notice on Wednesday of the Meeting Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Any comments regarding future inflation could move the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates faced an extremely tough triple layer of resistance at the end of last week. With no Treasury auctions ahead this week, I will be watching closely to see if Bonds and rates can bust through this resistance and improve any further.

What if a buyer who is concerned about the market says "isn't my home an investment?"

Read Answer

When you’re buying a home, first off it’s where you’re going to live. That’s not an investment first philosophy – just like the car you bought, the clothes you wear, and the TV you watch. These are things that have to do with your lifestyle, and those are lifestyle decisions that are made. You didn’t contemplate buying a watch as an investment necessarily, you probably thought of it as a lifestyle decision first.



However, you bought a good watch and it lasted a long time. In the end though, it might not appreciate. It actually is an investment of sorts, meaning you made such a good decision you didn’t have to buy another one and you didn’t have to get it fixed. So when we think about buying a home it’s a lifestyle decision first, but it’s an investment of a different nature. It’s an investment in that, you will have to make regular payments on it, and it will force you to put money into it. Now we can’t time when we sell an investment. Timing finds us.



When you make an investment you don’t know when you will get your return back. The great thing about buying a home is that you can wait it out because it’s your home. You need to be thinking when you buy a home 5 – 7 years so that you can catch the cycles and do ok on it. The other thing is that its forced savings, meaning that if you never sold it and made your payments regularly at some point you wouldn’t have to make payments any more, and then you would be able to control where you lived the rest of your life, and it would be a lower cost of living.



Gary Keller

HUDO Blog

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